f you’re after Premier League Gameweek 18 predictions you can scan in 60 seconds, you’re in the right place. I’m a sports-mad dad who uses a simple AI model (plus a bit of real-life “I’ve seen this movie before” logic) to give score picks + confidence ratings for the Boxing Day run.
If you want next week’s picks without hunting for them, join the newsletter at the end — I’ll send them straight to your inbox.
Quick Premier League Gameweek 18 predictions (scores + confidence)
| Match (26–28 Dec) | Score pick | Confidence | One-line why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man United vs Newcastle | 2–1 | 60% | Old Trafford + bounce-back factor after a wobble. |
| Nottingham Forest vs Man City | 0–3 | 92% | Form + goal difference + squad depth mismatch. |
| Arsenal vs Brighton | 2–0 | 85% | Best defence meets Brighton’s finishing issues. |
| Brentford vs Bournemouth | 1–1 | 55% | Two mid-table sides trending “hard to separate”. |
| Burnley vs Everton | 0–1 | 65% | Everton structure vs Burnley crisis momentum. |
| Liverpool vs Wolves | 4–0 | 96% | Skill gap + morale gap = blowout risk. |
| West Ham vs Fulham | 1–2 | 50% | West Ham pressure, Fulham counter threat. |
| Chelsea vs Aston Villa | 2–2 | 60% | Quality attacks, fatigue vs momentum, goals both ways. |
| Sunderland vs Leeds | 2–1 | 72% | Home ground edge + better form profile. |
| Crystal Palace vs Spurs | 1–1 | 60% | Spurs talent vs Palace organisation = stalemate. |
Most Confident Picks (Premier League predictions this weekend)
I don’t do “best bets” chat. But if you’re looking for the most confident calls in my GW18 Premier League predictions, these are the ones the model feels strongest about.
Highest confidence calls
- Liverpool vs Wolves — 4–0 (96%): everything points one way.
- Nottingham Forest vs Man City — 0–3 (92%): classic holiday mismatch.
- Arsenal vs Brighton — 2–0 (85%): clean-sheet vibes.
Full match-by-match predictions (GW18)
Man United vs Newcastle prediction
Pick: Man United 2–1 Newcastle (60%)Old Trafford on Boxing Day is a real thing — it can turn “meh” performances into results. United’s been inconsistent, but the model likes the bounce-back effect after a defeat for top-half-chasing teams. Newcastle’s drawn a lot, and that “can’t quite finish the job” pattern matters.
Nottingham Forest vs Man City prediction
Pick: Forest 0–3 Man City (92%)This one screams mismatch: City’s form and goal difference are elite, and Forest are leaking goals. During fixture congestion, squad depth becomes a superpower — and City have it in ridiculous supply.
Arsenal vs Brighton prediction
Pick: Arsenal 2–0 Brighton (85%)Arsenal’s defensive efficiency has been the story: they don’t give you much, and they punish mistakes. Brighton can look lovely on the ball, but if the finishing isn’t there, it doesn’t matter. This feels like an Arsenal-controlled win with a strong clean-sheet chance.
Brentford vs Bournemouth prediction
Pick: Brentford 1–1 Bournemouth (55%)Two sides close in the table, both a bit leaky, both not exactly flying. When momentum is flat and legs are heavy, the boring answer is often the right one: regression to the mean and a draw.
Burnley vs Everton prediction
Pick: Burnley 0–1 Everton (65%)Burnley look stuck in a proper scrap, and that pressure shows up in decision-making. Everton, meanwhile, are the kind of team who can win ugly — organised shape, set-piece threat, and enough discipline to keep things tight.
Liverpool vs Wolves prediction
Pick: Liverpool 4–0 Wolves (96%)Wolves’ numbers are brutal — results, goal difference, the lot. Add Anfield, add Liverpool’s quality, and the model basically says: “Unless something weird happens, this is one-way traffic.”
West Ham vs Fulham prediction
Pick: West Ham 1–2 Fulham (50%)This is the messy one. West Ham’s underlying numbers suggest serious instability, and sometimes that turns home advantage into home pressure. Fulham aren’t reliable, but they can score — and if West Ham over-commit, the counter is on.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction
Pick: Chelsea 2–2 Aston Villa (60%)Villa’s momentum is scary, but fixture congestion is real — especially with an extra game in the legs. Chelsea at home are hard to put away, and they’ve got enough attacking talent to trade punches. This has “proper Boxing Day chaos” written all over it.
Sunderland vs Leeds prediction
Pick: Sunderland 2–1 Leeds (72%)Sunderland at home have that promoted-team energy where the crowd turns the stadium into a problem. Leeds have struggled defensively, and the model leans toward the side with the better form profile and the stronger venue factor.
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham prediction
Pick: Palace 1–1 Spurs (60%)Spurs’ league position doesn’t match their squad talent, but performances have been patchy. Palace are organised and annoying to break down. This feels like a tactical stalemate where neither side fully gets control.
How these AI predictions work (simple version)
I’m not asking you to trust a robot blindly. Here’s what’s actually going on behind the curtain:
- Form: last 5 games, but weighted (recent matches matter more)
- Goal difference: a quick “are you actually good?” reality check
- Home advantage: some grounds genuinely swing outcomes
- Fatigue / congestion: rotation depth matters in the holiday run
- Style matchups: high lines vs fast transitions, set-piece strength, etc.
The confidence % is the model’s certainty based on those inputs — it’s not a guarantee. Football loves embarrassing all of us.
FAQs
What are the best Premier League predictions for Gameweek 18?
My top “most confident” picks are Liverpool vs Wolves (4–0), Forest vs Man City (0–3), and Arsenal vs Brighton (2–0). They’re the clearest matchups on form, goal difference, and squad depth.
What are the Boxing Day Premier League predictions?
These Premier League Boxing Day predictions focus on quick score picks plus one clear reason per match. Fixture congestion is a big driver this week, so rotation and squad depth matter more than usual.
Who is most likely to win in GW18?
Based on confidence rating, Liverpool are the most likely winner this week (96%). Man City are close behind (92%).
What is the most confident prediction for Gameweek 18?
It’s Liverpool 4–0 Wolves (96%). The gap in results, goal difference, and morale indicators is huge.
Are these GW18 predictions based on stats or opinion?
Both — but stats lead. I use an AI-backed model built around form, goal difference, home advantage, fatigue, and matchup factors, then I explain it in normal human language.
How accurate are AI Premier League predictions?
AI can be solid at spotting patterns and mismatches, but it can’t predict red cards, deflections, or pure chaos. Treat it like a smart assistant, not a crystal ball.
Final takeaway + newsletter CTA
That’s my Premier League match predictions 26–28 December in one place: quick picks, clear reasoning, and confidence ratings you can actually understand.
Want next week’s EPL Gameweek 18 score predictions-style breakdown (plus the most confident calls) without searching for it? Join The AI Sports Dad newsletter and I’ll send it to you each week.