If you’re looking for Premier League Gameweek 12 predictions without wading through betting odds, you’re in the right place. In this guide I’ll walk through every fixture, share my scorelines, and explain the logic in simple, fan‑friendly terms.

No gambling tips. No “lock of the week”. Just data‑driven, betting‑free predictions for busy parents who want to enjoy the football and maybe win a few bragging rights in the WhatsApp group.

How We Make Our Gameweek 12 Predictions

Data, AI Models and No‑Betting Policy

I don’t use bookmakers’ odds to make calls. Instead, I lean on:

Underlying numbers – expected goals (xG), expected goals conceded (xGC), shot quality.
Form and fixtures – recent results, home/away splits, strength of schedule.
Team news – injuries, suspensions, and who’s actually fit to start.
AI‑style models – approaches inspired by nearest‑neighbour and neural‑network research that compare this week’s fixtures to thousands of past matches.

The key: everything is betting‑free. These Premier League Gameweek 12 tips are for fans, FPL managers and armchair analysts, not gamblers.

What “Confidence” Percentages Really Mean

You’ll see a scoreline plus a confidence percentage for each game.

70%+ – I’d be surprised if the result went another way.
50–65% – one team is favoured, but a draw or upset is very possible.
Below 40% – high‑variance, “anything can happen” territory.

It’s never a guarantee. Think of it as: “If we played this match 100 times, how often would this outcome happen?”

Premier League Gameweek 12 Score Predictions

Burnley vs Chelsea Prediction (Score & Confidence)

Prediction: Burnley 0–2 Chelsea – 70% confidence (away win).

Chelsea’s underlying numbers are just stronger. They consistently create better quality chances than Burnley, and Burnley’s defense has been giving up big opportunities all season.

Burnley are missing key defenders, which stretches an already fragile back line.
Chelsea welcome back attacking options like Cole Palmer, adding creativity and penalties.
Kompany’s positive style can leave space in behind, perfect for Chelsea’s pace.

Over 90 minutes, Chelsea’s extra quality and shot volume should tell.

AFC Bournemouth vs West Ham Prediction

Prediction: AFC Bournemouth 1–2 West Ham – 50% confidence (away win).

This one is tight. My models give West Ham a slight edge, but it’s close enough that a draw wouldn’t shock me.

Bournemouth are solid at home and near full strength, with only one loss in their last five.
West Ham’s squad quality is a touch higher, and they get key players back – a fit striker and centre‑back make a big difference.
Bournemouth will likely press high, but West Ham’s midfield can hit them on the break.

I’m leaning 2–1 to West Ham, but I’d only put it at about 50% – classic “could go either way” territory.

Brighton vs Brentford Prediction

Prediction: Brighton 2–1 Brentford – 55% confidence (home win).

Brighton’s home attack plus xG numbers give them the edge here.

They play an expansive, possession‑heavy style that regularly produces high xG.
Brentford are organised and dangerous on set pieces, but will likely sit deeper and counter.
Brighton are missing a couple of names, yet their system spreads goals and chances around.

My data leans towards Brighton creating the slightly better chances and edging it 2–1, but Brentford’s set‑piece threat keeps this at a modest 55% confidence.

Fulham vs Sunderland Prediction

Prediction: Fulham 1–1 Sunderland – 30% confidence (draw).

This is one of those fixtures where the model basically shrugs.

Fulham have struggled for goals; no clear talisman is carrying the attack.
Sunderland arrive in good form after promotion, with an in‑form striker and a settled XI.
Fulham are missing their starting left‑back, which could open up space for Sunderland’s wide players.

Home advantage pulls Fulham back into it, but neither side is clearly superior. The draw is the single most likely result, but only at around 30% confidence – there’s a wide spread of possible outcomes here.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

Prediction: Liverpool 3–0 Nottingham Forest – 85% confidence (home win).

This is one of the clearest calls of the Gameweek.

Liverpool’s expected goal difference is among the best in the league.
Forest have one of the worst xG profiles: they struggle to create and concede a lot.
Forest are winless in six, their top scorer only has a couple of goals, and they’re missing several starters.
Liverpool should have a strong XI, with Mohamed Salah leading the line and Alisson steadying the back.

Everything – form, data, squad strength, Anfield – points to a comfortable home win. An 85% confidence rating reflects that dominance.

Wolves vs Crystal Palace Prediction

Prediction: Wolves 0–1 Crystal Palace – 50% confidence (away win).

Low‑scoring, cagey, and probably not one for the neutrals.

Wolves are winless in six and have no player with more than one league goal.
Palace, by contrast, have picked up four wins in their last six and have a reliable scorer in Mateta.
Palace may also get extra attacking depth back, while Wolves are missing a couple of defenders.

Tactically, expect Wolves to have the ball but lack punch, while Palace sit compact and break with pace. I’m siding with Palace to nick it 1–0, but only at around 50% confidence – a draw is nearly as likely.

Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction

Prediction: Newcastle 1–2 Manchester City – 60% confidence (away win).

A proper heavyweight clash, but City still come out on top in the numbers.

City’s attack and defense metrics are elite; Erling Haaland already leads the league in goals and xG.
Newcastle are strong at home and will press aggressively, but City are built to handle pressure with their ball retention.
City are close to full strength, while Newcastle are still juggling a few injuries, even if some players return.

My models give City around a 60% chance of winning, with a competitive 2–1 away victory the most likely scoreline.

Leeds vs Aston Villa Prediction

Prediction: Leeds United 1–3 Aston Villa – 60% confidence (away win).

Villa look like a top‑six side on the numbers, and it shows here.

Villa’s recent form is strong: four wins in six, with solid attack and defense metrics.
Leeds, newly promoted, have been inconsistent with four losses in six and no standout scorer.
Villa spread goals across multiple players, which makes them harder to shut down.
Leeds will press at home, but Villa under Emery are good at playing through pressure and exploiting the space behind.

I’m backing Villa to show their class and win 3–1, with around 60% confidence in an away victory.

Arsenal vs Tottenham Prediction

Prediction: Arsenal 3–1 Tottenham Hotspur – 65% confidence (home win).

The North London Derby rarely feels calm, but the data leans Arsenal.

Arsenal have won five league games in a row and boast one of the best xG differences.
Spurs are inconsistent and dealing with big injuries – Maddison, Bissouma and others missing shifts their whole style.
Arsenal could welcome back key attackers like Ødegaard and Martinelli, boosting their creativity.
At the Emirates, Arsenal usually control the ball and territory, and Spurs’ patched‑up midfield may struggle to cope.

Rivalry games can be chaotic, but the combination of form, home advantage and squad health gives Arsenal roughly a 65% chance of winning.

Manchester United vs Everton Prediction

Prediction: Manchester United 2–0 Everton – 70% confidence (home win).

United are trending up, Everton are wobbling.

United are unbeaten in five, with improving cohesion and defensive solidity.
Everton have just one win in six and lose a key centre‑back in Branthwaite to injury.
Everton’s attack is quite one‑dimensional; if you stop their main scorer, they run out of ideas.
United should have Lisandro Martínez back to strengthen the back line, and their pace out wide plus Bruno’s creativity should eventually crack Everton’s low block.

The models point firmly towards a routine home win, with a clean sheet likely if United stay focused. I’ve got this at around 70% confidence.

What These Gameweek 12 Predictions Mean for FPL

If you’re juggling school runs, swimming lessons and FPL transfers, here’s the quick link between these Premier League Gameweek 12 predictions and your fantasy decisions:

Captaincy:
- Liverpool’s 3–0 projection vs Forest screams Mohamed Salah captain.
- Haaland remains a strong option even in a tougher away game at Newcastle.
Defence:
- Predicted clean sheets or low goals: Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea, Crystal Palace.
- Be cautious with Wolves and Forest defenders – the models don’t like their chances.
Attack:
- High‑scoring projections for Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa make their attackers prime targets.
- Avoid over‑stacking from Fulham vs Sunderland – my model sees that as a tight, low‑ceiling game.

Now let’s turn those ideas into concrete FPL Gameweek 12 picks you can actually drop into your team.

Best FPL Picks for Gameweek 12

In this part of the guide to FPL Gameweek 12 picks, I’ll keep things simple: one captain, one premium anchor, one bargain, one differential and one goalkeeper. All of them are grounded in the predictions above and the underlying stats.

How I Choose My FPL Gameweek 12 Picks

Form, Fixtures and Underlying Stats

For every player, I’m looking at:

Form: recent FPL returns, not just one hot week.
Fixture: how strong the opponent is, home/away, and our score prediction.
Underlying numbers: xG, xA, big chances, shots in the box, key passes.
Minutes and role: are they nailed, on set‑pieces or penalties?

No‑Gamble, Data‑First Fantasy Strategy

I don’t touch betting odds. The whole idea is to give you solid, repeatable FPL decisions:

No “must‑bet” language.
No chasing miracle punts for the sake of it.
Just smart, data‑backed picks that fit around real life and limited time.

FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Pick

Mohamed Salah – The Safe Explosive Captain

If you want to sleep at night, Mohamed Salah is your FPL Gameweek 12 captain.

He leads the FPL scoring charts with a big gap, racking up eight goals and six assists already.
He’s produced seven double‑digit hauls in his first 11 matches, blanking only twice.
Under the hood, he’s top among midfielders for big chances and xG, and he’s still on penalties.

In Gameweek 12 he faces a defensively weak side that sits near the bottom of the table. My prediction has Liverpool winning 3–0, and Liverpool’s attack is flying – 21 goals scored and more big chances created than any other team.

Salah is at the centre of everything: penalties, open‑play chances, and bonus points when Liverpool dominate. For me, he’s the standout FPL GW12 captain pick.

Essential FPL Anchor for Gameweek 12

Erling Haaland – Set‑and‑Forget Premium

Even when he doesn’t haul every week, Erling Haaland is still the definition of a set‑and‑forget premium.

He leads the league with 12+ goals, clear of everyone else.
He tops almost every attacking metric: shots, shots on target, shots in the box, big chances, xG.
He’s on penalties and rarely misses minutes.

Yes, the fixture at Newcastle is tougher, but my prediction still has City winning 2–1. Haaland’s sheer volume of chances means he can score in any game, and selling him usually ends in pain.

You don’t have to captain him this week, but he remains a core FPL Gameweek 12 pick and a long‑term hold.

Best Budget FPL Pick for Gameweek 12

Cole Palmer – Penalties and Playmaker at a Bargain Price

At around £5.0m, Cole Palmer is one of the best value players in the game right now.

He’s effectively become Chelsea’s main playmaker and penalty taker.
His expected assists (xA) are right up there with the league’s best creators.
He’s adding goals and assists steadily, and his minutes are very secure.

In Gameweek 12, Chelsea travel to Burnley, and I’ve got that down as a 2–0 Chelsea win. Burnley’s defense is leaky, Chelsea are finding form, and Palmer is involved in most of their good attacking moments.

For best cheap FPL player for Gameweek 12, Palmer ticks every box: price, role, minutes and fixture.

Top Differential Pick for Gameweek 12

Darwin Núñez – High‑Upside, Low‑Owned Punt

If you’re chasing rank or mini‑league rivals, Darwin Núñez is your boom‑or‑bust differential.

He’s owned by under 5% of managers, which is tiny for a Liverpool forward.
Per 90 minutes, his shot and big‑chance numbers are excellent.
He already has returns from limited minutes and looks set for more starts with competition not fully fit.

The key is the fixture and prediction: I’ve got Liverpool beating Forest 3–0, and Liverpool are projected as one of the highest‑scoring teams this week. If Darwin starts and gets 70+ minutes, he could explode.

He’s not a safe pick – that’s Salah. But as an FPL GW12 differential, the upside is huge if he finds his finishing boots.

Best Goalkeeper for Gameweek 12

Jordan Pickford – Save Points and Clean Sheet Potential

For keepers, I like Jordan Pickford as a one‑week or short‑term play.

He’s kept three clean sheets in his last five, conceding only two goals in that run.
He racks up save points and often sneaks bonus when Everton keep the score down.
Under Dyche, Everton’s defence has tightened, especially in more controlled home games.

In Gameweek 12 he faces a Brentford side that can be wasteful, which is perfect for a keeper: shots to save, but not necessarily goals conceded. At around £4.9m, he’s a solid value goalkeeper with both clean sheet and save potential.

Final FPL Tips for Gameweek 12 (and Weekly Email)

To wrap it all up:

Play it safe with captaincy – Salah is the standout.
Hold your premiums – Haaland is still essential.
Use value wisely – Palmer and Pickford free up cash without killing your ceiling.
Pick your battles with differentials – Darwin is high‑risk, high‑reward; don’t overload on punts.

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Premier League Gameweek 12 Predictions (2025/26)