If you’re hunting for NFL Week 12 AI predictions 2025 that go deeper than “vibes and hot takes”, you’re in the right place. I’ve run every matchup through my AI model, blending DVOA, EPA, schedule strength and injuries to give you data-driven picks, confidence levels, and upset alerts.

Key Takeaways

NFL Week 12 AI predictions 2025 provide data-driven picks, confidence levels, and upset alerts based on advanced metrics.
The AI model evaluates core stats like DVOA, EPA, and player injuries to project game outcomes.
Key matchups feature predictions for Bills vs. Texans, Ravens vs. Jets, and a notable upset alert for Steelers vs. Bears.
The article highlights how to use AI predictions for smarter fandom and fantasy betting decisions.
Weekly AI predictions are available through The AI Sports Dad newsletter, offering insights without the hype.

I’m not here to shout “lock of the week”. I’m a dad with three kids, a love of the NFL, and a slightly unhealthy relationship with spreadsheets. These predictions are here to help you watch smarter, argue smarter, and maybe set your fantasy lineup with a bit more confidence.

If you like this style of breakdown, jump on The AI Sports Dad newsletter – I send weekly AI-powered picks for the NFL, F1, and more, in plain English.

NFL Week 12 AI predictions 2025 – data-driven picks for every game

How These NFL Week 12 AI Predictions Work

Before we dive into the games, here’s how the model thinks:

Core stats:
- Team efficiency (DVOA, EPA/play)
- Net yards per play
- Schedule strength and recent form
- Key injuries and suspensions
Output:
- A projected score
- A confidence percentage (how often this result hits in the simulations)
What it’s NOT:
- It’s not a betting tout service.
- It’s not financial advice.
- It’s a smarter way to enjoy the games, set fantasy lineups, and spot where the records are lying.

Use this as one lens, not a crystal ball. Track how it does week-to-week, and you’ll quickly see where the edges usually are: efficiency vs record, injuries, and schedule.

Thursday Night Football – Bills at Texans (Nov 20, 2025)

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans – AI Prediction & Score

AI pick: Bills 27 – Texans 20
Confidence: 70% (Bills win)

Why the model likes Buffalo:

The Bills’ offense is flying – Josh Allen is coming off a six-touchdown game and this unit sits top-4 by offensive DVOA.
Houston’s defense is legit (3rd in defensive DVOA), but their offense is only 22nd, which makes it hard to keep pace if this turns into a track meet.
On a short week, elite offenses tend to carry over more consistently than middling ones.

For fans and casual bettors: this is one of those games where the Texans’ defense can keep it close for stretches, but over four quarters the model expects Buffalo’s firepower to tell.

Sunday NFL Week 12 AI Predictions (Nov 23, 2025)

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens – AI Picks & Confidence

AI pick: Ravens 28 – Jets 13
Confidence: 85% (Ravens win)

Baltimore have won four straight and look like the far more complete team.
Lamar Jackson isn’t at full rushing form since his injury, but the Jets’ offense is still stuck in mud.
The model basically says: unless the Ravens completely stall, this is Baltimore’s game to lose.

If you’re a Jets fan, you’re hoping for a classic “Ravens brain-fart game”. The simulations don’t see that as likely.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears – Upset Alert

AI pick: Steelers 23 – Bears 20
Confidence: 55% (live upset shot)

Chicago’s shiny 7–3 record hides a problem – they’re just 25th in overall DVOA and have had one of the softest schedules in the league.
Pittsburgh sit 14th in DVOA, and the model loves teams that are better under the hood than their record suggests.
Aaron Rodgers’ wrist is a concern, but even with a limited Rodgers or Mason Rudolph, the Steelers’ defense and run game give them a real chance.

This is classic “dad-honest” territory: yes, it’s an upset call, and yes, it’s sweaty. But the numbers say the Bears are overvalued.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals – Shootout Edge

AI pick: Patriots 31 – Bengals 27
Confidence: 60% (Pats win)

Drake Maye has gone from “promising” to MVP candidate in year two, leading the Pats to 9–2 and a top-10 offense by DVOA.
Cincinnati’s defense is a disaster – dead last in defensive DVOA and bottom of the league in yards per play and EPA allowed.
If Joe Burrow plays, the Bengals will score, but with Ja’Marr Chase suspended and that defense leaking everywhere, the model leans New England in a shootout.

If you like points, this is your game. My AI basically says: whoever has the ball last might win – but New England has the higher ceiling.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions – Blowout Watch

AI pick: Lions 30 – Giants 14
Confidence: 90% (Lions win)

The Giants are held together with duct tape on offense – Jameis Winston is in at QB and several key playmakers are missing.
Defensively, they’re dead last against the run, giving up 5.5 yards per carry.
That’s a nightmare against a Lions team that wants to pound the rock and control the line of scrimmage.

This is one of the model’s biggest mismatches of the week. Barring a turnover meltdown, Detroit should cruise.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – Rookie Growing Pains

AI pick: Packers 28 – Vikings 17
Confidence: 75% (Packers win)

Green Bay quietly sit 7th in DVOA and 4th in net yards per play, and they usually level up at Lambeau.
Minnesota are breaking in rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, and it’s been rough – the numbers are ugly, and the eye test isn’t kinder.
With the Vikings’ offense limited, the Packers can load up against the run and let their balanced attack grind this out.

This is less about Green Bay being unstoppable and more about Minnesota not being ready yet.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs – True Coin Flip Edge

AI pick: Chiefs 27 – Colts 24
Confidence: 60% (Chiefs win)

The Colts are the surprise of 2025 – #1 in offensive DVOA and EPA/play, 8–2, and Anthony Richardson looks like the real deal.
Kansas City are still a top-3 offense by most advanced metrics, but late-game execution has left them at 5–5.
The model basically sees this as a near coin flip, but nudges towards Mahomes at Arrowhead, especially on short rest.

On paper it’s an “upset” because of the records. In the simulations, it’s two heavyweights trading blows.

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans – Biggest Mismatch

AI pick: Seahawks 30 – Titans 10
Confidence: 90% (Seahawks win)

Seattle rank #1 in DVOA, while Tennessee sit dead last. That’s about as big a gap as you’ll see.
The Seahawks are dominant on the road, leading the league in net yards per play away from home.
The Titans look like a team quietly eyeing the #1 pick, with young QBs struggling and a thin roster.

If this goes wrong for Seattle, it’ll be because of turnovers, not talent.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals – Upset Alert

AI pick: Cardinals 23 – Jaguars 20
Confidence: 55% (Cards win)

Jacksonville are 6–4, but the model tags them as “paper tigers” – 15th in DVOA and negative in net yards per play.
Arizona’s underlying numbers are similar or better in key spots, especially with Kyler Murray back.
At home, with a slight efficiency edge and the better QB, the model leans Cardinals in a tight one.

If you only look at records, this feels spicy. If you look at the data, it’s much closer to a coin flip.

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders – Defense Wins Ugly

AI pick: Browns 20 – Raiders 17
Confidence: 55% (Browns win)

Cleveland’s defense is the star – top-5 in DVOA and yards per play allowed, with Myles Garrett wrecking gameplans.
The Raiders have lost four straight, and Geno Smith’s offense is sputtering with poor EPA/play and limited explosiveness.
Rookie QB Shedeur Sanders is likely starting for the Browns after a rough relief outing, so expect a very conservative gameplan: Nick Chubb, short passes, field position.

This isn’t one for the neutral. But if you like trench warfare and defensive clinics, it’s your kind of ugly.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – Statement Game

AI pick: Eagles 30 – Cowboys 23
Confidence: 65% (Eagles win)

The Eagles’ recent offensive hiccups came against elite defenses like Green Bay and Detroit. Dallas is the opposite – a bottom-five defense in most metrics, especially against the run.
Philly’s defense has surged to #1 in opponent EPA/play, which is bad news for a middling Cowboys offense.
The model still respects the short-rest factor for Philly and Dallas’ strong Thanksgiving record at home, which keeps this from being a 70–75% confidence pick.

On paper, the Eagles are clearly better. In reality, divisional games in Dallas can get weird. Upset chance is very real if Philly start slow.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints – Injury-Ravaged Falcons

AI pick: Saints 21 – Falcons 13
Confidence: 70% (Saints win)

Atlanta’s offense has been gutted – rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season, and top WR Drake London is also sidelined.
That leaves the Falcons with backup options at QB who sit bottom-5 in efficiency among qualifying passers.
New Orleans are strong against the run, ranking top-10 in opponent rush EPA, which is exactly where Atlanta want to lean.

The model sees a grindy divisional game where the Saints’ health and defense slowly squeeze the life out of Atlanta’s offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams – Rams Rolling

AI pick: Rams 28 – Buccaneers 20
Confidence: 80% (Rams win)

The Rams are one of the few teams ranking top-6 in both offensive and defensive EPA, and sit 2nd overall in DVOA.
Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, and now faces a Bucs defense that’s weak against the pass.
Tampa have faded after a solid start, sitting around league-average by DVOA and 22nd in net yards per play.

The model expects Tampa to hang around for a bit, but unless the Rams hand them extra possessions, this should stretch out in the second half.

Monday Night Football – Panthers at 49ers (Nov 24, 2025)

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers – AI Confidence Pick

AI pick: 49ers 27 – Panthers 17
Confidence: 80% (49ers win)

Carolina are 6–5 but bottom-five in most efficiency metrics – 26th in DVOA, 26th in offensive EPA, 24th in defensive EPA. The record flatters them.
San Francisco are getting healthy at the right time, with Brock Purdy back in rhythm and weapons like Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel available.
Cross-country trip, hostile environment, and a big talent gap all point the same way.

The model sees this as one of the more straightforward calls of the week.

Biggest NFL Week 12 Upset Picks from the AI Model

If you’re just here for the upset picks, here are the three the model likes most:

Steelers over Bears
- Efficiency vs record mismatch: Steelers 14th in DVOA, Bears 25th with an easy schedule.
Cardinals over Jaguars
- Jags are “paper tigers” with middling efficiency; Arizona’s metrics and Kyler Murray narrow the gap.
Browns over Raiders
- Elite Browns defense vs a Raiders team sliding in the wrong direction, with Cleveland happy to win ugly.

None of these are “guarantees”. The confidence sits around 55% – just enough of an edge to be interesting.

How to Use These NFL Week 12 AI Predictions (Without Being Reckless)

Here’s how I use this model myself as a busy parent who doesn’t have six hours a day to watch film:

Smarter fandom: I know which games are real mismatches and which “upsets” are actually closer to coin flips.
Fantasy & friendly bets: I use the projections as a tiebreaker, not a dictator. If my gut and the data agree, I feel better. If they don’t, I dig deeper.
Learning over “locks”: I track how the model does each week so I can see where it’s strong (efficiency mismatches) and where it struggles (weird divisional games, injury chaos).

If you want these AI-powered NFL predictions in your inbox every week, plus F1 picks and simple explainers on how the models work:

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FAQ – NFL Week 12 AI Predictions 2025

Q1: Who will win NFL Week 12 games in 2025?
This article gives an AI prediction and confidence percentage for every NFL Week 12 game in 2025, from Bills–Texans on Thursday night to Panthers–49ers on Monday Night Football. Each matchup includes a projected score, a favourite, and a short explanation in plain English so you can see why the model leans that way.

Q2: What are the best NFL Week 12 upset picks?
My NFL Week 12 AI model highlights three main upset picks for 2025:

Pittsburgh Steelers over Chicago Bears – the Bears’ record looks better than their efficiency numbers.
Arizona Cardinals over Jacksonville Jaguars – the Jags are “paper tigers” with middling DVOA and negative net yards per play.
Cleveland Browns over Las Vegas Raiders – elite Browns defense vs a Raiders team sliding on offense.

None of these are locks, but the data says they’re live underdogs with a small edge compared to public perception.

Q3: How accurate are these NFL AI predictions?
So far, my NFL AI model has landed in the rough 70–80% range on straight-up winners over a decent sample, with more volatility on spreads and totals. It uses efficiency metrics like DVOA and EPA, plus injuries and schedule strength, to spot where records are lying. It’s not perfect and never will be, but it’s usually better than just going by gut feel or last week’s highlights.

Q4: Should I trust AI for NFL betting and fantasy picks?
Think of AI as an extra lens, not a crystal ball. These NFL Week 12 AI predictions 2025 are great for:

Spotting mismatches and fake “contenders”
Breaking ties in your fantasy lineup
Making your Sunday viewing a bit smarter

They are not financial advice and shouldn’t be used to bet money you can’t afford to lose. Use the model to inform your decisions, not replace your common sense.

Q5: How often do you publish NFL AI predictions?
I publish NFL AI predictions every week during the season, along with F1 and other sports. The best way to get them first is to join The AI Sports Dad newsletter. You’ll get weekly AI-powered breakdowns, upset alerts, and simple explainers, all written for busy sports-loving parents who don’t have time to drown in spreadsheets.