If you’re a busy parent like me, you don’t have time to trawl 14 previews just to figure out who’s likely to win. So here are my NFL Week 16 predictions for 2025—AI picks, score predictions, confidence levels, and the handful of games that scream “chaos incoming.”
(Quick note: these are predictions for fun and analysis—not betting picks. I don’t do gambling content.)
Quick Picks Summary (Week 16)
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Score | Confidence | Upset Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams vs Seahawks | Rams | 24–21 | 60% | High |
| Eagles vs Commanders | Eagles | 27–20 | 75% | Low |
| Packers vs Bears | Packers | 23–21 | 65% | Medium |
| Bills vs Browns | Bills | 28–13 | 85% | Low |
| Cowboys vs Chargers | Cowboys | 27–24 | 55% | High |
| Chiefs vs Titans | Chiefs | 30–17 | 80% | Low |
| Dolphins vs Bengals | Dolphins | 31–28 | 55% | Very High |
| Jets vs Saints | Jets | 20–16 | 60% | Low |
| Vikings vs Giants | Vikings | 24–17 | 70% | Low |
| Buccaneers vs Panthers | Buccaneers | 21–13 | 75% | Low |
| Broncos vs Jaguars | Broncos | 20–17 | 60% | Medium |
| Cardinals vs Falcons | Cardinals | 30–27 | 55% | Low |
| Lions vs Steelers | Lions | 28–23 | 70% | Low |
| Texans vs Raiders | Texans | 31–17 | 85% | Low |
| Ravens vs Patriots | Ravens | 27–13 | 90% | Low |
| 49ers vs Colts | 49ers | 28–17 | 80% | Low |
How These Week 16 Predictions Were Made (Simple Version)
I keep this straightforward. The goal is useful, not nerdy.
What the model weighs
- Injuries + late-season attrition (Week 16 is where rosters start creaking)
- Weather (especially open-air stadiums)
- Motivation (playoff seeding pressure is real)
- Matchups (trenches, pass rush vs protection, speed vs coverage)
What “confidence %” means (and what it doesn’t)
- It’s basically: “How often would this pick win if we ran this matchup a bunch of times?”
- It’s not a guarantee.
- It also doesn’t mean the underdog is “bad.” It just means the favourite has more paths to winning.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
Rams vs Seahawks prediction (score + reasoning + upset note)
Pick: Rams 24, Seahawks 21 (60% confidence)This is a proper NFC West scrap at Lumen Field. Seattle’s home-field edge is real, but the Rams can stress coverage with motion and hit the intermediate middle to calm the pass rush.
Upset note: High upset alert. Divisional Thursday games are weird, and crowd noise can wreck communication.
Saturday Games Predictions
Eagles vs Commanders prediction
Pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 20 (75% confidence)Philly’s advantage in the trenches is still the story. If Washington can’t create off-schedule magic (especially with the QB’s legs), the Eagles can control pace and force long-yardage situations.
Packers vs Bears prediction
Pick: Packers 23, Bears 21 (65% confidence)Cold, rivalry, prime time—classic. I’m leaning Green Bay because the offence feels more settled, and that matters late in close games.
Upset note: Medium. If Chicago’s defence is fully healthy and creates turnovers, they’re live.
Sunday Early Window Predictions
Bills vs Browns prediction
Pick: Bills 28, Browns 13 (85% confidence)Josh Allen in December is a problem. Cleveland’s offensive inconsistency is the red flag, and Buffalo can lean on the run to grind this out.
Cowboys vs Chargers prediction
Pick: Cowboys 27, Chargers 24 (55% confidence)This one’s a coin flip. Dallas’ pass rush at home matters, but the Chargers’ physical run-first approach can travel.
Upset note: High. If the Chargers establish the run early, they can bully Dallas up front.
Chiefs vs Titans prediction
Pick: Chiefs 30, Titans 17 (80% confidence)December Chiefs are a different animal. Even with rotation players, the schematic edge—and Mahomes against zone—tilts this heavily.
Dolphins vs Bengals prediction
Pick: Dolphins 31, Bengals 28 (55% confidence)This feels like a track meet. Miami’s speed at home is hard to deal with, but Burrow keeps Cincinnati dangerous every single week.
Upset note: Very High. If Miami can’t get pressure without blitzing, Burrow can absolutely steal it.
Jets vs Saints prediction
Pick: Jets 20, Saints 16 (60% confidence)This screams defensive grind. I like the Jets’ secondary to limit explosive plays and turn it into a field-position game.
Vikings vs Giants prediction
Pick: Vikings 24, Giants 17 (70% confidence)Minnesota’s weapons are the difference. If the Vikings can create confusion with pressure looks, short fields follow.
Buccaneers vs Panthers prediction
Pick: Buccaneers 21, Panthers 13 (75% confidence)Tampa feels more complete right now. If they stop the run and force obvious passing downs, the blitz packages can take over.
Sunday Late Window Predictions
Broncos vs Jaguars prediction
Pick: Broncos 20, Jaguars 17 (60% confidence)Late-season altitude is a sneaky factor. I’m backing Denver’s home advantage in a tight, tactical one.
Upset note: Medium. Jacksonville has the talent if they control tempo.
Cardinals vs Falcons prediction
Pick: Cardinals 30, Falcons 27 (55% confidence)Fast-paced indoor vibes. Kyler’s mobility creates problems Atlanta can struggle to solve.
Lions vs Steelers prediction
Pick: Lions 28, Steelers 23 (70% confidence)Detroit’s offensive line can actually hold up against elite edge pressure, and at Ford Field the Lions can score in bursts.
Texans vs Raiders prediction
Pick: Texans 31, Raiders 17 (85% confidence)Houston’s offence at home is cooking, and the Raiders may not have the firepower to keep pace. The Texans’ front should win the line.
Sunday Night Football Prediction
Ravens vs Patriots prediction
Pick: Ravens 27, Patriots 13 (90% confidence)This matchup is rough for New England. Baltimore’s defensive complexity plus Lamar’s rushing threat is a nightmare combo.
Monday Night Football Prediction
49ers vs Colts prediction
Pick: 49ers 28, Colts 17 (80% confidence)San Francisco’s disciplined defence is built to contain volatility, and the offence can control the clock and wear teams down late.
Week 16 Upset Alerts (Top 3)
If you only have time to watch three games with “anything can happen” energy, it’s these:
- Rams vs Seahawks — divisional TNF chaos + crowd noise factor
- Cowboys vs Chargers — physical run game can flip the script fast
- Dolphins vs Bengals — shootout where one or two stops decide everything
FAQ
What are the NFL Week 16 predictions?
My NFL Week 16 predictions are game-by-game winners with score forecasts, confidence levels, and quick reasoning for the Week 16 slate (Dec 18–22).
Which Week 16 games are most likely upsets?
My top Week 16 NFL upset picks are Rams vs Seahawks, Cowboys vs Chargers, and Dolphins vs Bengals.
Are these betting picks?
No. These are entertainment and analysis, written for fans who want a quick, clear preview. I don’t publish betting content.
How accurate are AI NFL predictions?
AI NFL predictions can be helpful for spotting patterns, but football is messy—injuries, weather, and one weird turnover can flip everything. I use confidence % to show uncertainty, not pretend it’s perfect.
Get the Weekly Predictions
If you want these picks without hunting around the internet (or staying up late doom-scrolling after the kids finally sleep), join my newsletter.
- What you’ll get: weekly NFL picks + upset alerts + quick “why this matters” notes
- How often: once a week (with the occasional big-game bonus)
Join the newsletter and I’ll send the next set of predictions straight to your inbox.