Premier League 2025/26: AI Predictions & Full Table
Am I being daft, or does this season feel like chaos with better branding? Here’s your 2025/26 season prediction guide—powered by data, written by a knackered dad who still believes in away days and late winners.
🧮 Predicted Final Table
Note: Records reflect modal outcomes across simulations; real seasons wobble. Treat this as probability-weighted guidance, not gospel.
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 24 | 8 | 6 | 80 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 23 | 9 | 6 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 21 | 9 | 8 | 72 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 18 | 10 | 10 | 64 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 17 | 10 | 11 | 61 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 17 | 9 | 12 | 60 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 16 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 15 | 10 | 13 | 55 |
| 9 | AFC Bournemouth | 14 | 9 | 15 | 51 |
| 10 | Brentford | 13 | 11 | 14 | 50 |
| 11 | Nottingham Forest | 13 | 11 | 14 | 50 |
| 12 | Manchester United | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 12 | 12 | 14 | 48 |
| 14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 12 | 11 | 15 | 47 |
| 15 | Fulham | 12 | 10 | 16 | 46 |
| 16 | West Ham United | 11 | 11 | 16 | 44 |
| 17 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10 | 12 | 16 | 42 |
| 18 | Burnley | 9 | 10 | 19 | 37 |
| 19 | Leeds United | 8 | 12 | 18 | 36 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 11 | 20 | 32 |
🏆 Champions, Europe & Relegation Picture
Title race: Liverpool (edge), Arsenal (right there), City (retooling but dangerous). Any slip from the top three opens the door for Chelsea’s kids-under-Poch project.
Top four: Liverpool, Arsenal, City, Chelsea. Chasers: Villa, Newcastle (both close if one of the big three misfires).
Europe hunters: Palace, Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford—compact mid-table with outside shots at UEFA spots if variance smiles.
Relegation scrap: Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland are most exposed; Wolves, West Ham, Fulham can be dragged in if the goals dry up.
🔁 Transfer Window Highlights (Short)
- At the sharp end: Big clubs added creativity and legs rather than pure star-chasing. Depth and tactical fit > shiny objects.
- Youth waves: Chelsea, Arsenal, and City leaned into U-25 profiles to balance present and future.
- Promoted clubs: Added volume and energy; survival hinges on speed of integration and finding 30–35 dependable goals across the XI.
Editorial stance: Transfers matter, but availability and cohesion move more points than any single marquee signing.
🧩 Team-by-Team Capsules
Compact reads for busy brains. Click to expand. Key watch-words: continuity, chance creation, injury load, set pieces.
1) Liverpool — Defending champs, depth looks real
- Why here: Cohesive press, multiple goal sources, elite spine.
- Watch-outs: Full-back creativity replacement, centre-back minutes management.
- Ceiling: Champions. Floor: 3rd if injuries bite.
2) Arsenal — Perennial nearly-men with extra control
- Why here: Possession dominance, deeper midfield rotation, wide threat.
- Watch-outs: Converting territory to goals in tight away days.
- Ceiling: Champions. Floor: 3rd–4th.
3) Manchester City — Retooling, still terrifying
- Why here: Haaland + Rodri + Pep = high baseline.
- Watch-outs: Creative load redistribution post-old-guard, FB balance.
- Ceiling: Champions. Floor: 4th.
4) Chelsea — Young, chaotic, upward
- Why here: Talent density, pressing buy-in, late-’24/25 uptick.
- Watch-outs: Inexperience waves, GK stability.
- Ceiling: 2nd. Floor: 6th–7th.
5) Aston Villa — Process merchants
- Why here: Emery-ball, set-piece edge, home form.
- Watch-outs: Depth if two starters miss time; Europe load.
- Ceiling: 4th. Floor: 8th.
6) Newcastle United — Consolidation season
- Why here: Defensive structure, press, Bruno/Isak quality.
- Watch-outs: Goals if Isak misses time; rotation across fronts.
- Ceiling: 4th. Floor: 8th–9th.
7) Crystal Palace — Vibes + structure
- Why here: Eze/Olise end-product, backline maturity, belief.
- Watch-outs: Striker finishing streakiness; Thursday-Sunday legs.
- Ceiling: 6th. Floor: 11th.
8) Brighton — Reload factory keeps humming
- Why here: System-first, development pipeline, chance volume.
- Watch-outs: LB/9 transitions; aerial defending.
- Ceiling: 6th. Floor: 12th.
9) Bournemouth — Sneaky solid
- Why here: Transitional punch, smart reinvestment, Solanke’s growth.
- Watch-outs: Backline chemistry after sales; GK bedding-in.
- Ceiling: 7th. Floor: 13th.
10) Brentford — New era, same identity
- Why here: Set-pieces, structure, Toney factor.
- Watch-outs: Midfield steel post-exits; manager transition.
- Ceiling: 8th. Floor: 14th.
11) Nottingham Forest — Regression with Europe tax
- Why here: Depth is real; home form remains a weapon.
- Watch-outs: Away splits; replacing wide output.
- Ceiling: 9th. Floor: 14th.
12) Manchester United — Rebuild year (again)
- Why here: Individual talent keeps the floor mid-table.
- Watch-outs: Midfield control, centre-back availability, attacking fit.
- Ceiling: 7th–8th if chemistry clicks. Floor: 14th–15th.
13) Everton — Dycheball, new stadium bounce
- Why here: Defensive stability, set-piece grit, incremental upgrades.
- Watch-outs: Reliable goals; chance creation vs low blocks.
- Ceiling: 10th. Floor: 16th.
14) Tottenham — Stabilise first, sparkle later
- Why here: Coaching clarity, Maddison/Son quality, structural fixes.
- Watch-outs: Defensive errors; adapting to fixture load.
- Ceiling: 9th. Floor: 16th.
15) Fulham — Chasing last year’s control
- Why here: Organised, good in phases, Leno insurance.
- Watch-outs: DM replacement impact; chance conversion.
- Ceiling: 12th. Floor: 17th.
16) West Ham — Potter project patience
- Why here: Better ball progression, Bowen moments.
- Watch-outs: Centre-back gelling; replacing lost creativity.
- Ceiling: 12th. Floor: 18th.
17) Wolves — Margins FC
- Why here: Defensive platform, low-variance football.
- Watch-outs: Goals. Like, actually scoring them.
- Ceiling: 14th. Floor: 19th.
18) Burnley — Close, but conversion short
- Why here: Organised, brave; PL quality gap in boxes.
- Watch-outs: Keeper transition; reliance on streaky scorers.
- Ceiling: 16th. Floor: 20th.
19) Leeds — Farke’s balance test
- Why here: Energy and width produce moments.
- Watch-outs: PL-level defending; cutting out errors.
- Ceiling: 16th. Floor: 20th.
20) Sunderland — Heart says survive, numbers don’t
- Why here: Ambition and legs.
- Watch-outs: Premier League shot quality against; striker output.
- Ceiling: 17th. Floor: 20th.
🧠 Methodology (The Nerd Bit)
- Inputs: Prior-season xG/xGA, non-pen xGD/90, finishing variance, returning-minutes continuity, manager adj., squad-age curve, summer transfers (in/out) with role-weighted impact, injuries/suspensions, set-piece for/against, schedule difficulty.
- Model: Ensemble (Elo-like team strength + Poisson goal model + simulation). 10,000 season runs. Reported outcomes = modal finishes with credible intervals.
- Sanity checks: Compared against market odds ranges for title/top-4/relegation; divergences >10ppts flagged for review.
- Caveats: Injury clusters and January windows swing outcomes. Treat probabilities as confidence bounds, not certainties.
❓ FAQs
Who’s most likely to win the league?
Liverpool have a narrow edge, with Arsenal and City clustered—not a one-horse race.
Which three are most likely to go down?
Sunderland, Leeds, Burnley model as most exposed. Wolves/West Ham/Fulham are the wobblers.
How often do you update this?
Preseason, post-window, and at key inflection points (big injuries or manager changes).
How do you calculate win probabilities?
Team-strength ratings drive match-level Poisson sims. Season outcomes are distributions from 10k runs.
Is this financial advice for betting?
Nope. It’s a conversation starter for fans, not a tip sheet. Don’t bet the kids’ lunch money.
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Sources
Sources
2024/25 final table snapshots — NBC Sports:
https://www.nbcsports.com/soccer/news/premier-league-table-for-2024-25-season
2024/25 final table (recap) — Sports Illustrated:
https://www.si.com/soccer/2024-25-premier-league-final-standings-placings-points
Liverpool — champions, summer rebuild (Wirtz, Ekitike, Kerkez, Frimpong) — Reuters season curtain-raiser:
https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/champions-liverpool-armed-with-new-weapons-repeat-act-will-be-tough-2025-08-09/
Florian Wirtz to Liverpool — Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/jun/26/liverpool-set-to-sign-florian-wirtz-from-bayer-leverkusen
Hugo Ekitike to Liverpool — ESPN:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/45732275/liverpool-complete-79m-move-psg-hugo-ekitike
Arsenal sign Viktor Gyökeres — The Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/jul/05/arsenal-agree-64m-move-for-sportings-viktor-gyokeres
Arsenal sign Martín Zubimendi — Arsenal.com:
https://www.arsenal.com/news/martin-zubimendi-signs-arsenal
Arsenal sign Noni Madueke — Premier League editorial:
https://www.premierleague.com/en/news/4349138
Arsenal sign Kepa Arrizabalaga — Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/arsenal-sign-spanish-keeper-kepa-chelsea-2025-07-01/
Arsenal sign Christian Nørgaard — Arsenal.com:
https://www.arsenal.com/news/christian-norgaard-joins-arsenal
Manchester City sign Rayan Aït-Nouri — ManCity.com:
https://www.mancity.com/news/mens/rayan-ait-nouri-joins-manchester-city-2025
Manchester City sign Tijjani Reijnders — ESPN:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/45702897/manchester-city-sign-tijjani-reijnders
Manchester City sign Rayan Cherki — ESPN:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/45706175/man-city-sign-rayan-cherki-lyon
Man City buy back James Trafford — Sky Sports + Club:
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11679/13402632/manchester-city-re-sign-james-trafford-from-burnley
Chelsea win the 2025 Club World Cup (v PSG, 3-0) — Reuters + FIFA:
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chelsea-beat-psg-3-0-win-inaugural-32-team-club-world-cup-2025-07-16/
Chelsea sign João Pedro — Premier League editorial + club:
https://www.premierleague.com/en/news/4343412/chelsea-sign-joao-pedro-from-brighton
Chelsea sign Jamie Bynoe-Gittens — Bundesliga.com:
https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/news/jamie-gittens-to-join-chelsea-dortmund-england-man-city-32942
Tottenham win the 2025 Europa League — UEFA + Guardian + ESPN:
https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/news/0299-1dcffd82d4a0-c280ee5f9c62-1000–tottenham-1-0-manchester-united-spurs-win-2025-europa-league/
Spurs sack Postecoglou; appoint Thomas Frank — Sky + Spurs:
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11675/13384322/tottenham-appoint-thomas-frank-as-new-head-coach
Spurs sign Mohammed Kudus — Spurs + Premier League + ESPN:
https://www.tottenhamhotspur.com/news/2025/july/kudus-arrives-from-west-ham/
Spurs make Mathys Tel permanent — Spurs + AP:
https://www.tottenhamhotspur.com/news/2025/june/permanent-deal-for-mathys-tel/
Aston Villa sign Evann Guessand — Reuters + ESPN:
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/villa-sign-evann-guessand-2025-07-06/
Marcus Rashford loan to Villa (Jan–May 2025) — Premier League editorial:
https://www.premierleague.com/en/news/4307783
Newcastle sign Anthony Elanga — Sky Sports / AP:
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13401552/anthony-elanga-newcastle-transfer-news
Brighton sign Charalampos Kostoulas — AP:
https://apnews.com/article/brighton-sign-kostoulas-olympiakos-2025
Bournemouth sign Djordje Petrovic — Sky:
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13402394/djordje-petrovic-bournemouth-transfer
Brentford — post-Frank era; Keith Andrews appointed — Sky + Guardian:
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11748/13384423/keith-andrews-brentford-promote-set-piece-coach-to-replace-thomas-frank-as-head-coach-on-three-year-contract
Ivan Toney to Al-Ahli — Reuters / ESPN:
https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/al-ahli-sign-english-striker-toney-brentford-2024-08-31/
Everton — Hill Dickinson Stadium naming rights (club + ESPN):
https://www.evertonfc.com/news/2025/may/16/everton-/
West Ham — Graham Potter appointed; Callum Wilson signs — club + Reuters:
https://www.whufc.com/news/graham-potter-appointed-west-ham-united-head-coach
https://www.whufc.com/news/west-ham-united-sign-callum-wilson
Wolves — Strand Larsen, Fer López, Jhon Arias — BBC / ESPN / Celta:
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/68981357
Burnley — Kyle Walker joins; Lesley Ugochukwu in; James Trafford back to City — Premier League / Sky:
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11679/13402632/manchester-city-re-sign-james-trafford-from-burnley
Leeds & Burnley — 100‑point Championship season; promotion — Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/leeds-win-championship-title-goal-difference-luton-relegated-2025-05-03/
Promoted trio outlook (Leeds, Burnley, Sunderland; spend & context) — Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/promoted-premier-league-trio-keen-avoid-fate-immediate-predecessors-2025-08-09/
Sunderland — Régis Le Bris, spending; Habib Diarra signs — Premier League editorial + SAFC:
https://www.safc.com/news/2025/july/01/diarra-arrives-on-wearside/
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